Has early start to MLS season had a negative drag on attendance?

This season, MLS began its season earlier than ever, opening more dates for international games and creating a schedule that had more breathing room and less fixture congestion.

But, have the results been worth it? According to ESPN’s MLS attendance monitor, after April 14 — or week seven of the season — the league’s average attendance stood at 17,743. Last year, according to the league’s official count, the average attendance was 18,807 per game.

Now, obviously, comparing the attendances from March and part of April of 2013 to all of 2012 is apples and oranges. Attendances fluctuate month by month. There are traditionally good months and poor months for attendance, depending on the respective leagues we’re discussing.

So, let’s compare apples to apples. According to the MLS Attendance blog, through eight weeks of the 2012 MLS season, the average MLS crowd stood at 18,368. That’s a fair comparison to the 17,743 average through the first seven weeks of the 2013 season. (By the way, the MLS Attendance Blog has the so-far average attendance at 17,744, +1 from ESPN, that may be a case of rounding) So, comparing like to like, we can say that MLS attendances are down after years of steady increases thanks to expansion and new stadiums. The attendances are off more than 600 a game.

But any decrease is significant because MLS, like the NHL, is an attendance-driven league. It doesn’t have a massive television deal that gives member teams significant revenue even before they make tickets available for sale.

Certainly, the early start didn’t help MLS. Bitter cold affected games in the north, from New York to Chicago. Snow postponed a match in Colorado. (Snow also postponed a game in Montreal, but that happened just last week, after the team had planned to move outdoors after playing two games at Olympic Stadium. It wasn’t a case of an early start: That was a spring snowstorm.)

But, MLS had some things happen that should have mitigated the early-season blahs, in terms of total attendance. Toronto played a game at Rogers Centre, the first time league play had occurred there. That should have boosted average attendance numbers. Montreal also had two games at Olympic Stadium. The Impact’s average through three games is 26,913 — well ahead of the league pace.

And, MLS, cleverly, created a “Rivalry Week” for the third week of the season. Traditionally, in pro sports, the games that happen right after the opening days are some of the softest for attendance. The season is new, there’s a post-opener hangover, and the sense of occasion doesn’t exist. The teams haven’t played enough games for early-season matches to be considered important in the grand scheme of things.

So MLS, very intelligently, came up with a way to boost interest in the league in week three.

But, even with rivalry week and dome gates, the league couldn’t increase total attendance numbers. Chicago is averaging just 11,840 a game, and the Fire have played home games in bitter cold. Philadelphia is at 17,010, no longer selling out on a regular basis. Again, cold weather has affected the Union’s games.

Chivas, of course, is a drag on the league, averaging just 7,623 a game.

Sports is a finicky thing. Give people a special event or a playoff game, and they’ll brave armageddon to come out. I’ve covered sellout outdoor NHL games with the temperature well below -15 C. NFL playoff games in bad weather are still played to full houses.

But regular-season games are different animals. And, weather is a funny thing. What’s OK weather to a Minnesotan is frigid to a Californian. A person acclimated to the Canadian prairies will wear short sleeves and shorts when a Torontonian or Vancouverite will be wearing a jacket and gloves. And same said prairie person will hide indoors on a sweltering summer Toronto day, when the locals are out basking in the sun. So, what’s tolerable conditions for an outdoor regular-season game depends on the market.

Still, March matches in temperature that hover around the freezing mark aren’t good for attendance numbers, no matter what kind of climate you are in.

And maybe that’s why, next year, if it returns to the early First Kick, MLS has to consider some realities: That is must take a cue from lower divisions and keep cold-climate teams away from home for a few weeks. Toronto and Montreal offer dome alternatives, but Chicago, Columbus, New York, Colorado and Real Salt Lake might be better served with road trips to start the season, while the California, Texas and dome teams (like the Whitecaps) play a lot at home in March. NASL does this: FC Edmonton doesn’t expect a home game until late April. It’s the reality of the Canadian prairies.

There is a balance. Fans can easily say “we will make up attendance numbers in the summer,” but there’s a growing school of thought that the summer heat isn’t great for attendance numbers. In reality, you’d love May weather all year long if you’re a marketer of outdoor sports. That’s the sweet spot.

NASL is taking July off this year. It’s a strategic move, allowing teams to take advantage of the transfer window and retool for a second season that starts from scratch. As well, July is when the European teams come over for their preseason matches, and it allows the teams the chances to book friendlies without congesting their schedules.

But there’s more to it than that. There’s a feeling that July is just bad for box office. In the north, summer weekends mean cottages and lakes for the city dwellers. And sports usually loses out to fishing trips, family long weekends or even backyard barbecues. And, in warmer climates, it’s unbearably hot. And it’s just as miserable to sit in a stadium when it’s steamy as it is when it’s freezing. (Though, you may sell more beer)

And, in the southeast, which is far more a concern to NASL than MLS, which has no base in that part of the country, July means active weather. Thunderstorms, severe weather warnings and the like. Nothing keeps fans away from regular-season games like lightning.

Really, building schedules comes down to guesswork. And, hopefully, MLS has learned some lessons in 2013 to be better prepared for March, 2014. And, hopefully, the frigid March games have helped bury the move-to-winter-schedule talk for good.