Stop the playoff pipe dream: Why Toronto FC needs to start resting players in MLS matches

Aron Winter PHOTO: PAUL GIAMOU/CANADA SOCCER

Toronto FC is in its best run of form in the club’s short history; in all competitions, the team has lost three of its last 13 matches.

After years of searching, the Reds look to finally have a true, reliable centre forward in Danny Koevermans. Torsten Frings’ experience has been invaluable, whether he’s a holding midfielder or a sweeper. Ryan Johnson has provided needed energy. Julian de Guzman is enjoying a career renaissance.

But is it enough to push it towards the MLS playoffs? The Reds would need a miracle. Or, more likely, a series of miracles.

The Portland Timbers and New York Red Bulls each have 36 points, which ties them for the final wild-card playoff spot in the league. TFC has 30 points.

But the big issue is the games played. TFC has just four games left on the MLS schedule, two of them on the road, where the Reds, despite their good form of late, have won just once all year long in MLS play. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls and Portland each have six games left.

Even if the Reds were to win all four of their remaining games to get to 42 points, Portland would need to find just seven points out of its six games. That’s two wins and a draw. (TFC has the tiebreaker between the teams).

TFC still has a game left with the Red Bulls, but lost the first match between the two by five goals, so we can consider that tiebreaker in the favour of New York.

As well, there’s the uncomfortable matter of D.C. United. Dwayne De Rosario and co. are in 12th place, with 34 points — two out of the playoffs. But DCU has a whopping eight games left on the schedule — TWICE as many as Toronto FC. And, it holds the tiebreaker with the Reds. You have to think out of New York, Portland and D.C., that it’s DCU that remains the most likely to take that 10th spot.

So, if TFC were to win all four games, DCU would need just eight points out of its last eight to beat the Reds in the standings. The Reds can go 4-0-0 down the stretch, but all DCU would need to do is win two and draw two of its last eight to finish ahead of the Reds.

Yes, collapses can occur in sport. But the Reds would need to go on a perfect run to finish the season and then need not one, not two, but three teams to all collapse. To have all three falter would be a statistical anomaly.

And that’s why technical director and coach Aron Winter must do his utmost to field the Reds’ best possible lineup for TFC’s final two CONCACAF Champions League matches, at home to Pumas UNAM and away to FC Dallas, who may very well have its spot in the quarters salted away by the time the Reds head to Texas. The Reds are still alive in that competition, with seven points out of its four matches.

That means Winter must make sure he has a fresh lineup for CCL, that his players aren’t fatigued. The statistical likelihood of TFC making the MLS playoffs is minute. So, it’s time for Winter to start resting key players for league matches in order to ensure that they are fresh for the two key CCL match-ups still to come.

It’s what the Reds owe to a long-suffering fan base.